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Jan Persson from Sweden writes "This is actually
one of my first visits to this page and I must say I loved your report.
Finally someone dare to publish something else than the usual blabla positive
bullshit that anyone without knowing shit about formula one could type.
Thanks. The Quali-flyer replies: Jan, Thanks for the encouraging words. You have raised some good points (not that I agree with all of your suggestions) and I definitely agree that something is required to bring the excitement back to F1. Ferrari's domination of this season, compounded by their heavy handed team orders has highlighted a problem that has been around for a long time. TV coverage and data displays vary from quite good to bloody awful and I think that taking the local network coverage directors to task on this could produce much better feeds. I don't really believe that playing with the points structure will change the reality of processional racing and I feel that NewsonF1.com got it right a couple of years ago when they started the readers forum on overtaking. That is what is missing today and sad to say that the tyre developments and aerodynamic advances of the F1 car that has made them so blindingly quick may be the very things that kills the sport. F1 tyres (even hard compound ones) are very very soft and 'marble' or throw off bits of rubber as they wear. These marbles are moved to a zone just off the racing line and are extremely slippery. Moving off the racing line onto this dirty track to overtake often means losing directional stability and traction, risking a lot more than one place in the line-up. There are very few genuine opportunities provided on today's circuits for overtaking because it simply isn't possible to sit in the turbulent air behind another car and thereby set yourself up for an overtaking move. While bringing back overtaking is the simple answer there is no easy way to achieve this and I would hate to see handicapping faster cars or reverse grid starts etc being used to compensate for more difficult but ultimately preferable solutions like cleaning up the air behind the cars and making tyres shed rubber differently. Have a read of the forum, I'm sure the answers are all there, it's really just a matter of convincing the powers that be to adopt them Glenn from Canada writes "Although some of your
summaries are on the mark, I have to disagree with a couple of points. I don't
think I will consider Olivier Panis a "middle of the road" driver,
and thankfully for his sake, Toyota apparently agrees with me. This is a very
coveted drive for a middle of the road driver to land! Panis has proven
himself to be very quick over the years with a lot of experience to back it up
on race days. As a general rule, Villeneuve and Panis both did a fine job
making the most out of an uncompetitive car in this, the most uncompetitive of
season's in recent memory. The Quali-flyer replies: Glenn, Thanks for the comments. I can't agree with a couple of your points. In this company Olivier Panis is a 'middle of the road' driver, which means he is probably only better than 99.999% of the worlds professional drivers. I assure you I would like to be as bad as him but there are only about 20 others he can be compared with and putting Yoong as the worst and Schumacher as the best (Michael of course, not Ralf who on a good day might just make my best 10 list) Panis sits midfield. My criticisms were directed at Jacques, who sees himself as being the teams gun driver. Look at the stats, he has not convincingly trumped Panis in qualifying and that says to me that today he is not significantly better. To harp on a comparison, Webber and Yoong (like Villeneuve and Panis) have the same equipment but its very obvious who is the better driver, you can't make that observation about Villeneuve and have to use a history book to see how good he was. If he can't even beat Panis consistently in the same car he isn't championship material any longer in my mind. As for the 'seemingly' derogatory remark about Coulthard, I apologise. I must be getting too wishy washy and conservative in my commentary. That was meant to be blatantly derogatory not seemingly derogatory. David is a fine driver with a wealth of experience with McLaren. He is very good at keeping the car together and has the results on the board to prove it, like Ralf. That does not mean he is a better driver than Raikkonen, who is much younger and very much less experienced. When it counts, on Saturdays, Raikkonen delivers and David doesn't. Last year it was Montoya who was blindingly fast but broke cars which was partly his fault and partly the Williams car. This year Kimi is doing the same thing. Coulthard will not be able to match Raikkonen next year on Sundays as he hasn't on Saturdays this year. Any driver who can bring as much history to a race and has had as much input into a car as David has should beat the new boy, end of story. I do agree with some of your comments about Ferrari though. They were far too conservative with their approach to winning Michael's championship. With the package they have they could have (and would have) achieved the same results without team orders but it all comes back to money. Michael is so closely identified with the marque that only he can be World Champion and Todt did what he is paid to do, make that happen. I cannot believe though that the outcome would have been different. Michael is the better of the two and would win even without team orders, perhaps by a lesser margin but he is not the number one driver because he gets paid more, he's number one because he delivers. Racing is a high ideal but when it comes down to it, no team will not use orders to meet its objectives. Even Sir Frank would use them (and has) if he could achieve an outcome with them that wouldn't be achievable without. I believe team orders are appropriate if they can avoid teammates putting each other out of races or protecting positions without risking cars (telling a driver in second place to back off late in a race to allow both cars to be conserved in the absence of other competition is a perfect example). The cars belong to the team, not the drivers, and F1, rightly or wrongly is a Big Money Business that is all about winning sponsorship dollars and TV rights. Michael brings more of those than Rubens. Cooky from Australia writes "How many poles has
JPM got this year 6 or 7(too lazy to look) I can't remember, my point is this,
Senna the fastest ever achieved a 40% pole ratio and when he died I believe
the best was yet to come, remember Williams Renault (92,93,96,and 97) as the
fellows who won after he died in Williams cars I didn't rate at all except
Villeneuve. See Michael would still have broken some records but not yet for
most of them as Senna would of had a few more titles. The Quali-flyer replies: Cooky, Montoya has 7 poles for this season (plus 3 from last year). His percentage of poles from his 32 starts is currently 31.25% versus Senna's 40.4% from his 161 starts. Schumacher will never catch Senna's pole percentage from his current 27.4% of 175 starts. In fact it is very unlikely that he will even match Senna's 65 poles. He needs another 17 and even with Ferarri's current positioning that's a whole season of starts from P1. Montoya could theoretically match Ayrton but it would be a big ask. He would need to exceed his current 7 poles every season for the next 8 years to match that rate with the same number of starts. Having a competitive car every year from now till his 35th birthday is inconceivable given the natural flow of advantage from team to team over time. Its also fairly unlikely that he will actually achieve 161 starts during his career (the price of being a late starter). Its far more likely that he will exceed that rate for a few seasons and possibly end his driving career with an equal or better pole percentage than Senna, but falling far short of the 65 real race wins. One of the reasons that I created the Quali-flyer was to provide some measure of the skill level of the drivers that are not number oner drivers for number one teams. In reality only 2 or 3 teams at most can provide potential pole sitters and only 2 teams can provide the equipment that will allow their gun drivers any reasonable chance of regular wins. Montoya is getting the (well deserved) cudos for his qualifying skill but without the package of the Williams BMW and French tyres he could be putting in superb performances down the back of the pack. Mark Webber is a very good rookie but is a long way off being the best driver in the circus, yet he is the sole driver with a perfect record of wins in qualifying this season. Montoya and Schumacher (Michael - not Monty's also ran playmate) both have fairly unimpressive qualifying records for 2002 measured against that yardstick. As for your other comments, while I agree that Monty enjoys playing mindgames, I don't believe that he's got the runs on the board yet to really justify them, even with Ralf. Having said that, he certainly has got him rattled. Mika was an amazingly effective qualifying pilot up to his final year but unfortunately he's gone and we'll have to see how Kimi can fill his shoes in future seasons. He's certainly doing pretty well so far. Josh from Australia writes "Is it just me, or are the lap times getting further apart rather more competitive?" - (Ref - The Real Race explained) The Quali-flyer replies: Josh Thanks for the email and many apologies for the errrrr ... slightly delayed response. No, its not just you. The gaps do appear to be creeping out and while this is the first time I have kept empirical data on relative performances on consideration I'm not particularly surprised by this. The teams (read Ferrari and Williams) that are performing best in the real races are the ones that have the best development teams behind them and have been able to put more effort into continuous improvement. This year particularly, the tail end teams have had to work very hard to stay afloat (well, the ones that have stayed solvent) and development capital has been non-existent at Arrows, Minardi et al. Even the late bloomers like Jaguar seem to have one of their drivers (in this case Eddie) getting to grips with the car's changes more competently than the other. Eddie particularly surprises me, given his preference for talking rather than driving, but I guess he just wants to show that he still has it, even if he kept 'it' well hidden for the first half of the season. Within the teams, it seems the good drivers polish their skills, keep up with the development of the car and just keep getting better. The also ran's and the 'shouldn't have been there in the first places'? They don't. Tendulkar from India writes "Hi Quali-flyer,
I've been eager to ask you this question for sometime now. Given the poor
qualifying performance of DC in comparison with his The Quali-flyer replies: Tendulkar Two Flying Finns? It might get a bit confusing. While I have heard rumours of Hakkinen being fitted for new suits and helmets (and declaring that he has to lose 6 kilograms!) the latest info is that he is not returning. I guess the truth is we will have to wait and see. Coulthard is not likely to move from McLaren without a push, they are still very definitely number three and getting better. Given that he will not get a drive at either Ferrari or Williams, where can he go that isn't backwards? David has a best before of end 2003, no question, and will almost certainly retire then. He will probably finish this season with more points (but significantly less qualifying wins) than Kimi and if Hakkinen stays retired he will drive a McLaren next year as the support driver (again) to a Flying Finn. If Mika decides to return (and the team principals allow it) then it will be interesting. Would I replace DC with MH? Probably, although Mika would have to show the same level of motivation he had last century. What a great problem to have though. Do I keep a blindingly quick near-rookie who is getting better every race and a real world champion or the rookie and one of the quickest and most experienced drivers around today, a guy who knows the people and has helped develop the car to what it is today? Am I a fan of Hakkinen? Lets say I have a huge amount of respect for the ability of the motivated Mika, much more so than I have for David. Would I like to see Mika and Kimi head to head in the real races? You bet I would." Johan from South Africa writes "Shame, why pick on Ralf - again? I feel that Montoya, with all his verbal assaults at the beginning of the year, his outstanding qualifying this year compared to his mediocre race results makes him an excellent candidate for the 'Also ran award'. Vocally he is a lot more aggressive than Ralf, his qualifying is a lot better than Ralf (even better than Michael's). In fact, his attitude promises you the earth as does his qualifying but his race results are pathetic in comparison and similar to Ralf's (although Ralf has won once this year). At least Ralf lives up to expectations. But Monty most certainly does not. Monty even botched Monaco where pole guarantees you the win. Unless you are saving Monty for the 'Also ran of the year'." - (Ref - The Real Race - France) The Quali-flyer replies: Johan, I think you better go back and read the Real Race main page a few more times (or perhaps have someone read it to you!). You obviously are confusing my comments and Also Ran awards with something relating to Sunday's non-events. In the races much can happen to influence the relative position of team mates, in qualifying its really down to the drivers. Monty is in line for a step on the Qualifying Hero's podium, and is very unlikely, on current performance, to score an Also Ran. I do not comment on, nor relate the driver's awards to any events that may occur on Sundays. The Quali-flyer sticks to the real races on Saturday where Monty is standing tall and living up to all his "vocal aggression" (and then some) where Ralf, well, ...... Ralf aint. As for Also Ran of the year, that looks like going down to the wire with an abundance of talent vying for the right to be called the least best competition for 2002. Rick from Canada writes "According to
you, whenever JPM grabs a pole it is because of luck or the horsepowers. You
seem to miss that horsepowers do not always mean speed. Today's highest speed
was set by MS. JPM has set the fastest lap only twice these year. And it is
not because of incompetence, it is because his car is not the best in the
field. Why not to admit it simply: JPM is the best at qualifying. And soon he
will be the best in the race. Better than MS. Also better than your favourite
second best (don't ask who that is, but here's a clue: his first name is
Flying) The Quali-flyer replies: Thanks for the comments Rick. Actually I am not a big fan of MS and agree he has been riding a bicycle for a long time. Its the bicycle that makes me pick him, not the rider. If you look at my responses you will see that I am predicting a move by the other bicycle rider to threaten Michael, now that the contractual obligations are almost put to bed and he can remotivate himself. Having said that, the combination of a Ferrari bike and Schumacher rider is still the most effective weapon in the F1 arsenal (to really mix my metaphors) and it is only the huge qualifying horsepower advantage that Juan Pablo enjoys that allows him to take pole after pole. That's not taking anything away from JPM, who is blindingly quick, measured against Ralf (my favourite also ran - who needs Montoya's speed to stay there!). As for the fastest lap analogy, that's really my point. The Williams can dial up a massive power advantage in qualifying but it is obviously at the expense of reliability, or they would use that power in race trim. Horsepower does indeed not necessarily equate to top speed (aerodynamics is the real limiting factor there), but it does provide accelerative power, which is what is required to move the car as quickly from one corner to the next and thereby post quick qualifying laps. There is no question that the Williams/Montoya combination is the best qualifying line-up (as the Ferrari/Schumacher duo is the best race pairing) today, and my constant criticism of Ralf is based on the fact that he can't measure up to this benchmark. Equally, my criticism of DC (or praise for KR if you will) is that McLaren again represents a level playing field (as does Williams and Minardi) and he consistently fails to make it. I do believe that Raikkonen is destined for great things, he is driving a lesser car than Montoya, has a lot less experience in racing yet is achieving results equivalent to Montoya (given the equipment differential). My real favourite driver today is Mark Webber, nobody has come even close to his performance in real races. Not once. Wet or dry Mark is putting his Minardi in contact with (or among) the tail end of the pack every race. Yoong is terrible, but he's also driving a terrible car. He is consistently putting that car about where it deserves to be, way behind. Alonso is being praised highly for his talents, in the same situation that Webber is in today he did not perform last year the way Webber has this. So, sorry, we will have to agree to disagree on this, Montoya is the fastest qualifyer in the field, no question, but he's not the best qualifyer. That honour goes to the guy who is sitting second last on most grids. Montoya, Michael and Kimi all sit on the next rung down the ladder from there. Cooky from Australia writes "I always put Michael down for my pole pick for 6 `n' Pole because if I change and choose Montoya, Michael will win the bludging thing, you know it's a Murphy's law thing. But for me these two are the only blokes out there, if either of these guys don't perform it means they are having technical problems (Mr Murphy again) or some other unavoidable problem which every player in every game has once in a while. But when both of these guys are "on it", qualifying times tumble. You make your own luck, and the harder you try the luckier you get. Magny-Cours is a drivers track so as far as I'm concerned these two are first picks for their teams and the also rans will either be Ralph ,Yoong or Edward the try hard, with Ralph I believe looking good to take out the title, My only ambiguity is the time differential, you see as the gap Ralph seems to get in a very good car this same time in a not so good car, is it equal? A fast car with a difference of say 0.4 is that the same as say, a Jaguar at 0.4 as these cars seem to get exponentially faster not linear. A faster car's time at that same 0.4 would be more of a flogging than a slower car, so for Ralph so far it has been a lay down mizare. I`ve probably not got anyone reading this so this is probably a question in a statement for you Mr Quali-flyer as it might just be you and me about this one, or even just me." - (Ref - Quali-flyer's French GP Predictions) The Quali-flyer replies: Cooky, While I have to agree that the real race is indeed a 2 horse race I'm not sure how much longer that will be the case. Rubens is trying a lot harder, when he does try, and with Michael's drivers championship all but settled it is obvious that team orders won't play a role for much longer at Ferrari. I don't see the fire in Michael anymore and wonder if he isn't just going through the motions (very quick motions all the same) now that there isn't as much to fight for. I believe that Michael will win the real race again today but I'll be looking much harder at the circuits and car strengths from here on in to make my predictions, particularly if Michael ends up on the podium, yet again, on Sunday. It will be many more than just the two of us who read your comments (our editorial staff read it too!). The varying differential is indeed an element to be considered when comparing teams between the front and rear of the field. Yoong would have had a perfect score with an also ran for every event if that weren't the case. The reality though is that each driver will have exactly the same equipment available for both drivers (even Ferrari) and so the variance between drivers is down to set-up, mechanical failures, traffic or drivers skills (weather, track conditions and luck etc can also impact). Where a driver consistently fails to fall within a 1% window of his team mates times that driver is questionable. If he is a rookie, or relatively inexperienced then allowances must be made, unless his opponent is equally inexperienced (Yoong and Webber for example). Ralf's 0.4 second gap would, in my mind, equate to a 0.5 second gap for a Jaguar or Arrows and perhaps 1/2 a minute for Alex (one must make allowances for the difficulty in driving with a very fat wallet under your right buttock). Cooky from Australia writes "At Ferrari it will
be Michael. At B.M.W Williams it will be J.P.M. Though I don't know which
driver, that is, Michael or Juan to bring home pole. Common sense tells you
that Michael is overdue for a pole position. If Juan Pablo wins a fourth
consecutive pole, then I truly believe we will be witnessing the CHANGING OF
THE GUARD so to speak, a dawn of a new era. You see consecutives are hard to
get these days as every one out there has a toy that the margin between a
technologically superior car and an abject failure a "dog of a car"
is so small. So to dominate today and score consecutives is harder than ever. The Quali-flyer replies: Cooky, I couldn't agree more, but I don't think the new guards clothes are quite finished at the tailors. What it does show though is that tomorrows champions will come from the racers like Montoya, not from the conservatives like Ralf. Ralf is very fast but he will never be world champion (and certainly won't be a season's Qualifying Hero - A title Mark Webber has pretty much won already for the inaugural year, unlike Michael in Sundays minor events Mark has convincingly won every Real Race this season). Juan Pablo might not beat Michael tomorrow, and it will be Bibendum and Bridgestone who decide that, but he is putting the only interest that exists into the pointy end of the competition. You are certainly right though in noting the closeness between the cars. When Alex Yoong can put a Minardi within 7% (Ok, If Alex Yoong puts a Minardi, sometimes he can't) of the lap times the real racers in real cars manage then it proves that the gap is tiny. Montoya will be champion but it's too early to make comparisons with the greats, 3 in a row is a superb achievement, Senna's 40% of all starts is unbelievable. Enjoy the real race, but accept that if Bridgestone deliver it will be a red front row on Sunday, if they don't it will still be 1/2 red. Anusha S from India writes "With due respect to you, the Quali-flyer, I have to say that you are becoming rather predictable, with your predictions based more on your rigid personal preferences. Nothing wrong with that, but it isn't working too well is it? espesially Montoya having taken pole in the last two races. Please take no umbrage" - (Ref - Quali-flyer's European GP Predictions) The Quali-flyer replies: Anusha, Switched alliances to JPM have we? Ahh well, You will be in the running for a second place on Saturday with him. Ralf won't be in sight though. No umbrage taken but I still go with my rigid personal preferences, and the bookmakers, and feel that Michael will deliver (again) in Germany. I had no problems admitting my surprise in Canada and if I'm wrong here I'll acknowledge that too. I don't doubt that Juan Pablo is a very quick driver in qualifying, but the Ferrari is a much stronger package and Michael is a fair pilot too. As for the rest, the qualifying heroes are pretty much in line with my predictions to date and I am quite comfortable with my hit rate. Just as well I'm not a big fan of Ralf or my score would be much lower! Anusha S from India writes "'Also Ran' award to
Ralf Schumacher eh?? Give me a break! He was very quick. But for the traffic
in the final run, he could definitely have come very close to pole. We all
know that you personally don't like Ralf, but really, you had other more
deserving candidates for the award : The Quali-flyer replies: Anusha, What is it about Ralf Schumacher fans? Maybe it's something in the water? Take a middling good driver, who just happens to have a good driver for a brother, put him in a very quick car and then praise him for doing only what he is (over)paid to do? Nope - not me. Ralf is not a worthy holder of any title beyond the one he earned for the second time in yesterdays real race. All the drivers in F1 are quick, even Yoong!!, but some are quicker than others. Take Raikkonen, he qualified in the 4th car (which was David's T car) he drove during the weekend, and still managed to get into 6th and with a similar losing differential to Ralf. Perhaps you think he should have got the gong? You suggested that Irv' or Nick were more worthy recipients. Both got honourable mentions but weren't even close to Ralf's supreme effort. Eddie's 0.3 second differential and Nick's 0.4 were a way off Ralf's 0.6. No, Anusha, Ralf won fair and square. Ohh, that's right, I'm sorry, Ralf got held up by traffic! Guess what? EVERYBODY got held up by traffic. Read the post real race comments, Massa even managed to hold himself up if the others are to be believed. Sorry, that excuse doesn't work. Qualifying runs for an hour, the strategists want to hold the quick runs back till the end to stop the competition having a clear feel for the cars pace. Therefore, 60% of the laps are done in the last 1/4 of the time. At Monaco that means traffic and lots of it, if Ralf wanted a clear run he had 1/2 an hour with an empty track to do one. Not one driver, except possibly Yoong, didn't have one of their flyers effected by another car on it's outlap or inlap - that's Monaco. Keep taking the medicine Anusha, you'll be better in the morning, but Ralf still won't be as fast at driving a car as his fans are at jumping to his defence! Which is a pity because he'd be a real threat to his brother if he were!
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