Well, Alonso is virtually assured of the drivers’ championship. If Raikkonen wins every race (the last three) and Alonso does not finish in the points Raikkonen can still win the championship by 5 points, but how likely is that?

On the other hand, McLaren only needs six points to catch up with Renault and this is not impossible. Raikkonen and Montoya should be able to score six points more than Alonso and Fisichella. Alonso may be hard to beat but Fisichella has hardly been a regular podium contender this season.

McLaren reliability is in my opinion the only thing that could prevent McLaren from winning. One never knows when that Mercedes motor will let go.

The Interlagos circuit in Brazil (track layout) is a moderately fast track - around 200km/H (124mph) average lap speed. It is not particularly hard on brakes or tyres but the bumpy surface will definitely test suspension and car handling stability.

The circuit is a mixture of very fast straights and sweeping bends on the outer part of the circuit and a tight slower inner section. Setting up is always a challenge here because the downforce needed to be competitive in the inner, slower, section will disadvantage cars in the faster, outer part of the circuit. Suspension set up will also be critical to ensure that the cars maintain an optimum angle of attack (the angle of the wings to the airflow) over the bouncy surface.

The starting grid is a reasonable distance from the first corner ('S' do Senna), which is a 90km/H (56mph) left followed by a slightly faster right hand exit. I expect cars to get up to at least 260km/H (161mph) even on cold tyres before braking for 'S' do Senna on the first lap, thereafter they will be doing over 300km/H (187mph) down the pit straight.

'S' do Senna is followed very soon by another left handed corner (Curvo do Sol) that is even faster at 205km/H (127mph) which exits on to a long straight (Reta Oposta) where speeds will go over 300km/H (187mph) before braking for the 150km/H (93mph) lefthander (Descida do Logo) which is virtually a double apex hairpin.

A short straight followed by a reasonably fast right turn at 190km/H (118mph) and we get to the slower inner section of the track where mechanical grip or extremely high downforce is needed to negotiate several very slow corners with very little straight sections including a super slow right hand corner where most of the cars will drop down to 1st gear.

After Juncao (a left corner taken at 90km/H or 56mph) speed starts building through a left sweep onto Subida do Boxes (250km/H or 153mph) the left turn that leads on to a moderately short straight (which has the start of the pit lane peeling off to the left) just before a long fast sweep that leads on to the main pit straight.

This is also the most likely overtaking opportunity, but even then it has its problems. The optimum line through the left handed sweep will be taken at around 280km/H (170mph) which will cause the following car to struggle with grip at exactly the place where it needs to be faster to set up for the drag down the pit straight.

An alternative is to run around the outside. That is not only the longer way around the sweep but it is also through the marbles (racing vernacular for the rubber bits and dust that comes off the tyres). Driving over this slippery stuff at close on 300km/H is a brave move.

The back straight (Reta Oposta) will be another overtaking opportunity but this is also not easy as it means getting out of the Curvo do Sol at the same speed or faster than the car being followed. This corner is too fast to rely on mechanical grip and the dirty air from the leading car will make this hard again.

There may be other places where overtaking is possible but, as it will only be possible to do so with the cooperation of the other driver, it will probably only be back marker overtaking.

There is really very little to say from here on.

McLaren is definitely going to be fastest for the last three races. The circuits suit them and it is very unlikely that Renault will waste time developing this year’s car any further.

Both teams will have interesting challenges. Team orders must apply and I suspect that Renault will drive defensively and conservatively, hoping that McLaren will have another engine failure or two, while the McLaren drivers will be pushed to finish in the top two places to build up a points buffer in case an engine goes West (sorry for the pun).

BAR could be strong but I hate predicting how they will go seeing that they are so unpredictable. I wonder if the BAR is hard to set up? At least that would explain why their performance is so inconsistent.

Williams, well they have had many good years so a few bad years are not too bad. I cannot help but feel that they could easily go the Jordan way.

Toyota is definitely getting stronger. I am pretty sure that this is due to chassis and aerodynamic development as their motor was pretty powerful from the beginning of the season. If that is the case they may be even better in 2006.

Ferrari never does things in half measure. I would have ridiculed anyone that suggested this time last year that Ferrari would not be in the leading pack. When Ferrari screws up they screw up!

I still wonder what went wrong (sure, I know pretty much everything went wrong).

I would not have been surprised to see Renault and McLaren catch up with Ferrari. Sooner or later it had to happen, but to see Ferrari go backwards to the point that they struggle to stay on the same lap as the leaders is pretty hard to accept only 12 months after Ferrari almost finishing every race a lap ahead of the rest of the field.

Anyway do not expect much from this demotivated, depressed and pedestrian team that must be wishing the season away.

The rest of the field have been the rest of the field all season and are unlikely to change that now.

Next year Sauber will become BMW and we will see how they cope. The Bull needs good engines to avoid becoming The Ox and if Jordan is still here we will notice them as much as we did this year.

Agree or disagree ?

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