Ferrari is totally dominating this season. In my opinion Renault are the only team that can get anywhere near Ferrari and that will only be possible if the promised engine improvements and other evolutions that they claim will increase their performance actually do.

In the meantime Ferrari will not be standing still either. We can safely assume that they are also evolving their cars and if this rate of development is anything better than very ordinary I cannot see Renault catching up before it is way too late.

I do not think that any team or driver have a snowball’s hope of taking the championship away from Michael Schumacher and Ferrari. It would take a disaster in the Ferrari camp for that to happen and they seem to be fully in control. At best some of the other drivers and teams can win a race or two before the end of the season and the way things are stacking up at present only Renault and BAR seem to have a chance to do this.

Michael Schumacher keeps on breaking records. Almost none are left now. In Spain he equalled Mansell’s record of winning the first five races in a season and with a little luck in Monaco could easily beat that this season.

I suspect that Renault’s traction control gives them a huge advantage and not only at the start. Jarno Trulli blasted off the starting line into the lead and Alonso also made up a lot of ground before the first corner.

This ability to lose little power and acceleration to wheel spin is not only of benefit at the start of the race. Renault’s superior traction control will also play a huge role in the exit of each corner, specially the slower ones. This alone could account for their dramatic improvement this season and if their next engine release adds more power it will make them very effective in all acceleration areas.

It was another very easy race for Ferrari. Michael Schumacher could afford to slow right down to conserve his car and seem to have done so from about half race distance. The cracked exhaust did not seem to give him much trouble but it was probably slowing him enough to give Rubens Barrichello a shot at winning, but then there are no team orders at Ferrari.

Monaco (Track Layout) is one of the oldest Grand Prix circuits still in use. By modern standards, it is totally unsuitable for Formula One racing. Because it wanders through a venue that has changed little since the days of horse drawn vehicles, the circuit layout cannot be changed without disfigurement of this grand old city.

There are no run off areas. There is very little space for marshals and safety equipment. The pits are crowded and barely offer enough space for the teams to deploy the essential race day equipment. The event is so well organised that most of the failings are not noticed and any mishap is rectified in remarkably short time.

The start is very close to the first right turn which exits into the only bit of straight road on the circuit (275km/H or 170mph) (and even that has a kink in it) before braking for the big S-bend that ends going around the Casino (125km/H or 77mph). A short squirt on the accelerator and it is down to 75km/H (46mph) for Mirabeau, which leads into the famous Grand Hotel hairpin that is negotiated at almost walking pace. Portier, the right turn that leads into the tunnel is not much faster but then they get a chance to blow the cobwebs out of the engines accelerating to near to 300km/H (186mph) along a gentle curve to the Nouvelle chicane just before the left turn (90km/H or 56mph) at Tabac.

After that the cars never get above 200km/H or 124mph through the twisting section to the start of the pit straight (which is actually not a straight but a gentle right curve).

There are no overtaking opportunities on the circuit.

Monaco does not lend itself to even the smallest mistake. A small slide or misjudged corner will end in a touch with the very unforgiving barrier and almost always result in retirement. Where other circuits have run off areas Monaco has steel Armcos. Where other circuits have grass on the other side of curbs, in Monaco it is a concrete wall.

Strategy for the entire race weekend is very different in Monaco. It is incredibly easy to touch an Armco or misjudge a corner and most drivers will be very aware that the challenge is to qualify as high as possible but to make sure that they still have a car to start with. In Monaco, more than anywhere else, qualifying is on eggshells.

Having said that starting position is also more important here than on any other circuit. Not only is it impossible to make up positions on the track but the pits are so crowded that it is very difficult to orchestrate stops for overtaking. So much can go wrong and there is so little margin for error.

It is hard to predict how well Ferrari will do in Monaco.

I suspect that this season very few teams are prepared to gain mechanical grip at the expense of aerodynamic grip as, apart from Monaco, there are possibly only two other tracks in the season where mechanical grip is an advantage and even then the cars will be fast enough for aerodynamics to still work in a fashion. It is only in Monaco that mechanical grip is essential.

We will only see when the cars get onto the circuit which teams have included some mechanical grip in their development.

On the other hand we cannot disregards Ferrari’s astounding advantage so far in the season and it is likely that they may still be dominant, even in Monaco.

Michael Schumacher has done very well over the years at Monaco. He seems to like the circuit and his very precise driving style will be an advantage here.

Barrichello is also not bad here but let’s face it even if it turns out that he is faster than Schumacher team orders will keep him behind Michael unless the German takes himself out of the race.

Even if they do not have better mechanical grip Renault’s traction control will make them formidable at Monaco. Providing that there is space to safely overtake they are likely to make up places at the start and their acceleration out of the many slow corners will make them hard to beat.

In the past Renault has always had great mechanical grip and if they have still compensated for their lack of power by increasing mechanical grip this season we must expect them to be the team to beat at Monaco. This may be one of the few chances that they have to win a race and I am sure that they will be planning to do exactly that.

Alonso is fast but Trulli is proving to be just as good. Both drivers could win the race.

BAR is now two points ahead of Williams and it certainly looks as if they will stay ahead. Takuma Sato is getting better with every race and Button has shown that he can consistently finish on the podium if his car lasts.

I do not expect BAR to be as fast as Renault but they may be fast enough to bother Ferrari. It is all a case of who has the most mechanical grip.

Williams have always built fantastic chassis but since last season they seem to be making too radical advances which needs most of a season to understand and optimise. I suspect that chassis tuning is again their problem this year.

They are unlikely to have good mechanical grip but they may.

If Montoya can keep his car off the barriers and keep a cool head he could do well but I do not think that he will do well enough to finish on the podium. Ralf Schumacher could surprise us all by putting up a brilliant performance but, going on past seasons, that will be it for the year. He seems to only have one or two good races per season in him, the rest of the time he circulates to make up the numbers.

McLaren are struggling to stay ahead of Sauber who are doing a pathetic job taking into account that they have the same engines as Ferrari. Kimi Raikkonen is fast but his car is not and David Coulthard matches his car.

Unless they have heaps of mechanical grip, do not expect to notice the McLarens.

Sauber's problem must be chassis seeing that Ferrari are doing so well with the same engine. It is possible that they are having problems with aerodynamics and if that is the case Fisichella could do well. He is fast in Monaco.

Massa is fast too but I suspect that he lacks the maturity to do well here. He is as likely to bounce off the sides, as he is to finish in the points.

Jaguar could be the wild card as they are not as slow as they were last season and the Ford engine is down on power. If they deliberately built more mechanical grip into the chassis to compensate for their lack of power (the more power the more drag you can afford, which in turn means that you can increase aerodynamic grip) Webber could do very well. He is mature enough to handle the circuit.

Klein is an unknown factor, we will just have to see how he deals with this, very difficult circuit.

I do not know what to say about Toyota. If they are making progress I cannot see it.

That leaves Jordan and Minardi. Who knows maybe one or both of these teams have heaps of mechanical grip and will surprise us all by finishing on the podium. Don’t hold your breath.

It is always an exciting race. If the action gets boring there is the beauty of the venue and the throb of the atmosphere. The race could be processional but at Monaco the unexpected always happens.

Like always the race start at Monaco has the potential to eliminate one or more of the top drivers. Getting through the first corner in one piece is the challenge so do not be disappointed or surprised to see your favourite driver retire after a couple of hundred yards.

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