Could it be you overrate the tyre story?

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Diagnosis & Prognosis
By the Heretic

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By the Quali-flyer

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For last week's race I picked M.S. to take the pole AND the win. You said it was the Bridgestones that lost him the race, but Rubens managed to get 3rd on equally :bad" tyres!
As you said, JPM made an excellent move to get past Michael --and then went into "cruise." Was he almost out of petrol? Somehow I don't think "team orders" affect him much. Maybe he's maturing. He drove a solid race and deserved his podium.
And Ralph's race? I think he's like Rubens: you never know who's going to "show up" on any given day!
Could it be you over rate the tyre story? I don't know because I'm not privy to the inside talk up and down the pits, but surely the fact that Kimi stole the pole from Michael in last year's Mac/Merc means SOMETHING! Indeed, it used to be MS in an 'inferior' car who 'somehow' snatched poles and victories! And given the kind of qualifying AND racing DC managed, it seems hard on Kimi to say the credit all goes to his Michelins!!
Both Kimi and Fernando drove as beautifully as MS on great day. Which, to me, says the driver really does count. So I hope you're right about Mark Weber: that he either gets a better ride --or the Jag makes a great leap forward (finally!).
I know I'm like a broken record, but I'm picking Michael (again!) for pole and win. Kimi's engine, dialed back to a more reliable setting will give him 2cd place and JPM rounds out my podium. I expect Fernando, DC & Rubens to pick up points too --and Jarno T (at last!) mainly on the grounds that his bad luck HAS to end soon.
Given that both Toyotas DNF, I doubt if the fellows at the Toyota factory in Germany are dancing any jigs just now. Nor does the Honda look much better. Neither of these guys (I think) is in the game to wrestle with Eddie J and Peter S.! And that's all they're doing.
Goodness, won't it be fun to see the new Mac's at Silverstone!? This still could be the first year for K.R. to take a championship, you know! All he has to do is start finishing some races - Jim W - USA (Reference Heretic 5-11 - Can Bridgestone bridge the gap?)

The Heretic replies:

Jim,

Yes, I agree, Ralf is unpredictable.

I am starting to suspect that Ferrari has more problems that just the tyres with their new car. It seems to monster the tyres, which will explain why Barrichello, who tends to be easier on tyres, hangs in a little better. It is significant that when Michael posts fastest laps it is always on the out laps after pit stops, before it was on the in laps when his car was light. For whatever reason it must mean that the only time he has grip is on new tyres, almost before they are scrubbed in.

My current view, and the teams are so secretive that even pit lane rumours help very little, is that Ferrari may have designed a chassis that is a tyre killer. Two/three seasons ago McLaren had a similar problem when Bridgestone could not supply them with a tyre that could cope with the huge downforce over the rear axle.

BAR, poor as their car is, do not seem to have the same problem but it is hard to know what is holding them back. They seem so pathetic that it could mask the tyre problem.

Another view is that Bridgestone are at a disadvantage because they only have one leading team to gather data from while Michelin have a variety of competitive chassis to get input from.

I think that Montoya realised that although he may be able to catch Ralf, chances of overtaking was impossible. Why he constantly destroys his chances by running his tyres too long I will never understand.

Raikkonen is in a class of his own. He reminds me a lot of Michael in his early Benetton days. Raikkonen can make a slow car look acceptable and, lets face it, the McLaren is not slow. I think that the next world champion will either be him or Alonso, it only depends on when they get the car to do it in and who gets that car.

Michael has not slowed down yet. He is still fast, very fast, but at the moment he cannot get consistent performance out of his car – it must be tyres. If the Bridgestones improve he will be back up there.

I think that Ralf will be faster than Montoya again. He seems to suddenly have the measure of the car and although he is never brilliant he is technically excellent. The rest of your picks I have no argument with.

Yes sooner or later Trulli has to not be unlucky. If he did not have bad luck he would have no luck at all.

Assuming that the new McLaren will be better than the current car (a safe assumption as it is only Jaguar that seem to have the talent to go backwards) I think we will see some spectacular driving from Kimi BUT will he finish? McLaren have an appalling record when it comes to reliability of new cars.

If Bridgestone or Ferrari can’t fix their current problem I cannot see Michael or Ferrari maintain their lead in the championship. With the exception of Hungary all the circuits are fast where Michelin excels and after Monaco it is obvious that Ferrari are unlikely to do well in Hungary.

Renault are also getting faster.

The season is wide open.

Thanks for your mail. I always enjoy your well considered and accurate views.

The Heretic