Did Bridgestone close the gap permanently?  
31 July 2003 Volume 5 - Issue 13   

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Silverstone was a surprise. Barrichello being patently faster than Michael Schumacher, the Ferrari being faster than the rest of the field, Toyota being almost competitive, Ralf Schumacher slower again and incredible reliability with reasonable performance from BAR.

But the most surprising thing was that overtaking was common. We saw more overtaking in Silverstone than we have seen so far this season.

The intensive testing that Ferrari went through in the two weeks before Silverstone obviously paid off. Whether it was because Bridgestone made a leap forward in tyres or that Ferrari managed to come up with a set up that was better balanced and more compatible with the peculiarities of the Bridgestones we will probably never know, but the car was fast, very fast.

Michael Schumacher, although he did not embarrass himself, looked as if he was not enjoying the same benefits as Rubens. He spent an awfully long part of the race stuck in the backward end of the middle of race order and, while Rubens seemed to be able to overtake, Michael looked as if he could do very little.

I wonder if there was not just a small problem with Michael’s car?

There was obviously nothing wrong with Rubens or his car. He drove an inspired race, probably the drive of the season. His overtaking manoeuvres were brilliant, well planned and executed – he never scrambled past. A masterful drive.

Although Montoya was fast he never really looked as if he could take on Barrichello. Ralf, again, had a pretty ordinary drive.

I wonder if we are not misreading the sometimes-inconsistent performance of all the leading teams, as caused by the drivers. It is almost as if set up is now so critical that if the teams get tyre pressure wrong by a fraction or downforce wrong by a few pounds the performance of the car is affected to the point that the driver cannot compensate for it.

Ralf’s driving is just too unpredictable to make it totally a driver problem. Yes, I do think that Ralf is not good at driving when the car’s set up is not ideal, but it is just too inconsistent to assume that his moods or biorhythms are so flaky that he is only capable of driving well for some 20% of the time.

This year Montoya seemed to be plagued by the same syndrome and he certainly and obviously is prepared to drive the wheels off his car at every circuit.

It seems that the Williams is very fast if they get it right. It seems that getting it right for one driver is already an achievement. Both and it is pure luck.

McLaren did very well. Raikkonen did not seem to have the grip or power to stay ahead of Rubens but he managed to stay ahead of Michael Schumacher which helped his chase of the championship.

Coulthard drove a solid race to finish in 5th place after having to add an unscheduled stop to replace his headrest after this flew off causing the first pace-car stint of the race.

Alonso drove well but retired with a gearbox failure which was a pity because it was obvious that he would have had another strong points finish.

Trulli was also up to the pace but could not make the advantage that he gained in the start (Those Renaults have the best launch control!) and the pit stops stick. Renault may be getting there but they are still not quite up to the pace.

Toyota are getting better. da Matta drove very well and he even led the race for a while. Panis never looked as if he was in the hunt.

Both BARs finished well. Button in 8th earned him a point, well ahead of Villeneuve who, in 10th place, missed out on points again. at least it was not a retirement.

Sauber and Jordan were ordinary again and despite the efforts of Webber the Jaguars were not all that fast either.

Hockenheim is unlikely to allow as much overtaking as we saw in Brittain. Sudkurve, the corner that leads on to the pit straight is very fast (over 150km/H or 95mph) and it is unlikely that following cars will be able to exit this at the same speed as the leading car. In those circumstances most of the straight is used to catch up rather than overtaking.

Between turns 6 and 7 may be the place to watch for overtaking as 6 is very slow (70km/H or 43mph) but this section is a little short to overtake on.

The rest of the circuit is quite easy to drive defensively on so I do not expect much overtaking.
Although it has a very fast sweep (Hochgeschwindigkeits parabolica – only the Germans can come up with a catchy, easy to remember, name like that) where cars could reach 320km/H or 200mph it is not particularly fast. Downforce will matter, so expect to see an average amount of wing if not a bit more.

Being the German Grand Prix one must expect Michael to do well. He certainly can’t rest on his laurels. Raikkonen is only seven points behind him in the championship with Montoya, Ralf and Barrichello not far behind.

The very real question is: Will Bridgestone be able to provide appropriate tyres. There is a testing ban on at present and that means that if Bridgestone (and Michelin for that matter) have not done all of the testing to cover the next three venues they could yet again let the team down and leave Ferrari helplessly short of the grip or tyre longevity they need.

Hopefully Michael will be on the pace this time and not start behind the other leaders. If so I think he is most likely to win here.

Rubens will get to the weekend with a recent win behind him and should be very anxious to show that he can also consistently do well. I expect him on the podium.

Ralf Schumacher is also in front of his home crowd, so, unless his car is not to his liking, could be the other podium finisher.

Last year Montoya finished second, ahead of Ralf (although Ralf had to make an unscheduled stop). Add to that his recent second place and he could easily be motivated to do well. If they do have a small problem with tyres or setup he is more likely than Ralf to adapt to it and still finish strong.

Raikkonen should be strong here too. He is a strong qualifier and starter and will be far more difficult to overtake than in Silverstone. He is also a candidate for a podium finish.

With Coulthard it is really hard to guess how hard he will try and how fast he will be.

The race will again be fought out primarily by these three leading teams. There is a possibility that either Renault or Toyota may have found some more speed but it is very remote. Testing has been banned since the last race so we should assume that what we saw there is what we will get again. The only reason why any of these two teams may do better is that their cars may be ideally suited to the track and, as there are several very fast sections, this is not very likely.

BAR are most unlikely to do as well as they did at Silverstone again and Jaguar, the only other team that seems to be progressing, are unlikely to improve until the end of the testing ban, which is dangerously close to the end of the season.

Jordan and Sauber will put in another mediocre performance (although Sauber did finish in the points here last year) and Minardi will focus on finishing cheaply again.

The season is drawing to a close and unless something very dramatic happens it is unlikely that the drivers’ championship or the constructors’ championship will be decided before Suzuka, the last race of the season. There is still a lot of excitement left.

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