Will Williams dominate the rest of the season?  
17 July 2003 Volume 5 - Issue 12   

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I personally thought that the race was rather boring. Williams were much faster than anyone else and race order was hardly challenged. The only excitement was Barrichello who was working his way up the field after his spin in the first lap, but even that had little entertainment.

Renault are pushing their engines too hard. In a race where only Jordan and BAR retired one car each, Renault blew both.

I can sympathise with them. They seem to have everything else working very well. To be held back by an underpowered engine must be frustrating and turning up the wick to stay competitive is really the only option. Do not expect them to have the new engine up to power much before the middle of 2004.

Had Barrichello not spun we may have seen the cars finish the race in formation. He should have been able to get past Raikkonen, who was suffering from brake problems, which would have made the order: both Williams followed by both Ferraris and both McLarens.

Ferrari are now only 3 points ahead in the Constructors’ championship, which they will lose to Williams if they do not fix their problems before Silverstone. Michael Schumacher, on the other hand, is leading brother Ralf by 11 points. Assuming that both Williams and Ferrari stay reliable and all four drivers keep the cars on the race track, it will take several wins by Ralf to overtake Michael. Montoya is a further 6 points behind which will make it almost impossible for him to win the championship.

Raikkonen seems to be losing ground steadily to the Williams and Ferraris. Unless something dramatic happens he has little chance of getting on top of the Drivers’ championship.

Silverstone, like many race circuits, started life as a Second World War aerodrome. The first Grand Prix to be raced at Silverstone goes as far back as 1948 and the basis of the current track was established in 1949. This remained unchanged until 1971 when a chicane was added at Woodcote and new pits were built where they are today.

As the race pace picked up a corner was added before Woodcote in 87. By 92 a complex of tight curves were added (turns 13 to 16) to slow the approach to the pit straight even more. Sine then very little has changed.

Silverstone is hard on tyres and brakes. It has four very fast sections that all end in tight corners so the full acceleration and braking required to post a fast lap will be harsh on tyres and will also wear brakes.

There are two sections (between turns 2 and 6, and between turns 13 and 17) that require medium to high downforce but the majority of distance covered per lap is flat out at very high speed where a high downforce configuration may slow the car down. Again we can expect this compromise between speed and grip to determine which cars will be fastest.

The start leads into Copse, a very fast right hander and speed continues to be in the range of 210 km/H to 270 km/H (168mph) all the way through to turn 5 where they will slow to 180km/H (112mph) before accelerating through turn 6 into the straight that ends at Stowe where they will be braking down from well over 300km/H (186mph) to around 180km/H(112mph).

A quick squirt to turn 8 where they get down to 80km/H (50mph) in this sharp entry into Club which is negotiated at around 200km/H (124mph) where the trick is to get out of the corner as fast as possible for the drag down to Abbey. Get the exit right and they will again touch 300km/H (186mph) before slowing to 125km/H (78mph) for Abby. After Abbey they are in the high downforce right, sharp left, left again section of turns 13, 14 and 15 where speeds will not exceed 160km/H (100mph) and in places are reduced to 100km/H (62mph).

Once in turn 16 speed start building all the way through Woodcote exiting onto the main straight from a modest 160km/H (100mph) to very fast 275km/H (171mph) at the start of the straight where they should once more get up to 300km/H (186mph) before turn one.

Overtaking opportunities are braking into Stowe, possibly the approach to 8 although the section between 7 and 8 may be too short to gain enough, under braking for Abbey and for the brave of heart the main straight.

Ferrari are in trouble. The new car seems hardly faster than last year’s car and Williams have got their measure.

I still suspect that it is Bridgestone that is letting them down but it is possible that the car is also not up to expectations.

One of the main reasons why I suspect that the problem is the tyres is that lately Michael Schumacher often posts his fastest laps soon after pit stops when his tyres are new. In the past, when his tyres were working for him and it was the Michelin shod cars that were struggling, he often posted his fastest laps immediately before the pit stops because his car was much lighter.

The fact that his tyres are so worn that he cannot go faster before his stops and take advantage of the car being lighter does point to very disappointing performance from Bridgestone.

If Bridgestone do not catch up before Silverstone they are unlikely to be able to fix the problem during the balance of the season as there is a five week ban on testing that starts immediately after the Silverstone race. By the time that is over the season is just about over too.

Williams, on the other hand, look as if they are poised to continue their domination. The car is working well, it is reliable and their tyres seem to last forever.

Ralf Schumacher is suddenly in the limelight, pushing Montoya into the background. I do not think that this is because he is trying harder. It is because at long last Williams have built a car that he can drive.

Montoya is at his best when the car has the potential to be fast but is a little unruly and unpredictable. He is great at experimenting and finding the fastest way around the track despite the weaknesses of the car.

Ralf is a very precise driver that needs his car to be capable of that level of precision. If everything works as he likes it he is as fast as the best out there and seems to be able to get into a groove of making every lap just a little faster than before. He seems to be unable to even compensate for a single set of tyres that are not perfect, immediately losing ground to the other drivers regardless of his position.

Earlier in the season he was pedestrian. Like many others I believed that it was because he has stopped trying. Now I believe it was that the car was not capable of being driven to his level of consistency and accuracy and the inability to predict how the car will react slowed him while it had little or no effect on Montoya.

Accuracy and consistency are very important at Silverstone where straight speeds are very sensitive to exit speeds of corners. Ralf is likely to again be just that bit faster than Montoya.

McLaren may do a little better as Silverstone is their primary test track and they are very familiar with it but I suspect that their package is not good enough to match Williams. If Ferrari still has tyre troubles they could get on the podium.

If they do get on the podium I would be very surprised if it is Coulthard. He is now consistently finishing far back in the field while Raikkonen often fights for the lead.

Even if Renault can get their cars to last I do not think that they will have the straight line speed to do well. Expect them in the points but nowhere near the podium.

Jaguar are also on their home track and will want to look good in front of their home crowd. Webber has been exceptional all season and if Jaguar pull out all the stops and gives him a good car he could be the surprise of the race. He certainly is worth watching. Pizzonia has yet to look good so I do not expect him to break the mould in Brittain.

BAR and Jordan will have their problems and if they do not retire will finish far back in the pack, Sauber will again finish two or three laps down (unless they find a way of breaking the bullet-proof, dated, Ferrari engine again) and Minardi will be last again.

That leaves Toyota who will again finish marginally better than before, gradually closing the gap to the front although I must say that if the keep closing the gap at this rate it will be years before they are competitive.

It should be an exciting race and if Ferrari are suddenly on good rubber it could be very exciting. Both Drivers’ and Constructors’ championships are still wide open.

Agree or disagree ?
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