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Although the last two races made Ferrari look much less dominant, if at all, than they were all of last season I am still not convinced that McLaren and Williams have fully made up the gap to Ferrari. The extreme track temperature in Malaysia certainly favoured Michelin. In fact the Bridgestones hardly worked at all, especially on the Ferraris. Both Ferraris had the pace immediately after their pit stops when they were on a full fuel load and should have been too heavy to post their fastest laps. The reason why this happened is that as little as three laps later both drivers found themselves on blistered and overheated Bridgestones. Neither driver had the tyres to push for the entire race. The Malaysian race results are also pretty conclusive: Ferrari were the only Bridgestone shod cars to finish in the top 6 finishers. Even if Michael Schumacher did not drive into the tail of Trulli when he was defending the first corner of the race from Coulthard, I do not believe that he would have won the race. The Bridgestones would have let him down. I do not believe that these first two races of the season is any indication of how the rest of the year will unfold. Ferrari took a gamble in Melbourne to go out on intermediate tyres when the rest of the field were on slicks and it did not pay off, ending Barrichello’s race and totally screwing up Schumacher’s race strategy. Tyres held the Ferraris back in Malaysia. A long-winded way of saying that Ferrari may still be dominant. We just can’t see it at present. Again I repeat most of my comments on the Interlagos track after making a few small changes. The Interlagos circuit in Brazil is is a moderately fast track - around 200km/H (124mph). It is not particularly hard on brakes or tyres but the bumpy surface will definitely test suspension and car handling stability. The circuit is a mixture of very fast straights and sweeping bends on the outer part of the circuit and a tight slower inner section. Setting up is always a challenge here because the downforce needed to be competitive in the inner, slower, section will disadvantage cars in the faster, outer part of the circuit. Suspension set up will also be critical to ensure that the cars maintain an optimum angle of attack (the angle of the wings to the airflow). The starting grid is a reasonable distance from the first corner ('S' do Senna), which is a 90km/H (56mph) left followed by a slightly faster right hand exit. I expect cars to get up to at least 260km/H (161mph) even on cold tyres before braking for 'S' do Senna on the first lap, thereafter they will be doing around 320km/H (198mph) down the pit straight. 'S' do Senna is followed very soon by another left handed corner (Curvo do Sol) that is even faster at 205km/H (127mph) which exits on to a long straight (Reta Oposta) where speeds will get up to 310km/H (192mph) before braking for the 150km/H (93mph) lefthander (Descida do Logo) which is virtually a double apex hairpin. A short straight followed by a reasonably fast right turn at 190km/H (118mph) and we get to the slower inner section of the track where mechanical grip or an extremely high downforce setup is needed to negotiate several very slow corners with very little straight sections including a super slow right hand corner where most of the cars will drop down to 1st gear. After Juncao (a left corner taken at 90km/H or 56mph) speed starts building through a left sweep onto Subida do Boxes (250km/H or 153mph) the left turn that leads on to a moderately short straight (which has the start of the pit lane peeling off to the left) just before a long fast sweep that leads on to the main pit straight. This is also the most likely overtaking opportunity, but even then it has its problems. The optimum line through the left handed sweep will be taken at around 280km/H (170mph) which will cause the following car to struggle with grip at exactly the place where it needs to be faster to set up for the drag down the pit straight. This could be difficult. An alternative is to run around the outside. That is not only the longer way around the sweep but it is also through the marbles (racing vernacular for the rubber bits and dust that comes off the tyres). Driving over this slippery stuff at close on 300km/H is a brave move. The back straight (Reta Oposta) will be another overtaking opportunity but this is also not easy as it means getting out of the Curvo do Sol at the same speed or faster than the car being followed. This corner is too fast to rely on mechanical grip and the dirty air from the leading car will make this hard again. There may be other places where overtaking is possible but, as it will only be possible to do so with the cooperation of the other driver, it will probably only be back marker overtaking. There is a risk that the track could be very hot but I can’t recollect it being that hot on race day for a very long time and even if it is an extraordinary hot day it is never going to be as hot as Malaysia. The Bridgestones should fare better, how much better we do not know. McLaren are likely to qualify and start with enough fuel to stop only once. This is where the new rules make it more interesting and much more confusing. To win, McLaren will be relying on their judgement of what the other teams will be doing. This is not restricted only to the two teams (Williams and Ferrari) that they see as their competitors but also virtually all of the rest of the teams. For example if they decide to go out on full tanks and Williams decide to qualify on half filled tanks (adopting a two stop strategy) they may find that a team like Sauber or Jaguar (also on a two stop strategy) may qualify ahead of them and hold them up in the early part of the race, allowing Williams to build a big enough margin to pit and join in front. I suspect that we are going to see many race strategies fail in this manner. Of the two drivers Raikkonen is by far the fastest and seems to have
matured enough to take advantage of this skill. He is likely to qualify well
and drive an aggressive race. If there is any weakness in the Bridgestone
tyres he is going to win the race, all else being equal. Unless his tyres fail I still believe that Michael Schumacher in the
Ferrari is the fastest of the field. Barrichello is not far behind. Renault has found a brilliant way of stopping their cars. They are vastly
superior to the rest of the field in the last 20 metres before corners and
make up for their lack of outright speed by leaving their braking much later. Talk in the paddock is that the Williams BMW motor is still the most
powerful. Their chassis seems better this year but has a lot of teething
problems (paddock rumour has it that BMW are unhappy with the chassis). Give Montoya a car that can win and he will. He is aggressive and capable
of pushing hard for the entire race. If the chassis has as many gremlins as
rumour suggests he is doing a great job at making it work for him. Sauber, the all-German team if you discount the Ferrari motor, is not doing
as well as I expected them to do early in the season. Although I am sure that
it is not the same they are after all running on the same vintage motor as
Ferrari and if they cannot get to the front now they will be at the back half
way through the season with no chance of scoring points, let alone a podium
finish. BAR are in the points and seem to be finishing some of the races with some
of the cars. They are obviously better than they were last year but if they
want to be competitive there is a lot of work to be done. Jordan do not seem to be getting it right. Fisichella did not start and
Firman finished one lap down. I guess it is the lack of funds. Jaguar seem faster this year but are still experiencing far too many
teething problems. Webber made it to lap 36 and Pizzona to lap 43 before their
cars failed. I am surprised that Minardi are not doing better. Their Cosworth motor may not be the best off the shelf but I believe that it is much better than they have ever had before. Toyota is around where I expected them to be this season. They have a lot to learn to build a competitive car and team and will spend this season doing just that. Panis has some experience in F1 racing but very little was in a competitive car and Da Matta is rumoured to be very fast but before he can show what he can do he needs to get a few more races behind him. The third race of the season in Brazil has little in common with the two previous races. The track surface is very bumpy and the climate should be milder. Bridgestone tyres may work better which will close the field. Race strategies are still confused and varied. F1 is even less predictable than before. Anything could happen. Agree or disagree ? Previous Heretic Issues Loading
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