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I have to agree with you on most points. I just think that even with last years car, given improvements during the off season that MS & Ferrari remain unbeatable. I don't think Ferrari would let their drivers go out in second rate cars and they certainly were head and shoulders ahead of everybody else last year especially at Suzuka. 
So given that starting point and assuming they did some tweaking during the off season then they should at least be even with the rest of the grid. Equal cars means MS will win, he is just a better driver. 
DC and JPM are the only threat If Williams and McLaren have improved power and reliability they may be able to give Ferrari a run for the money. Rubens will be relegated to blocking for MS. Ralf had better look to his driving and not whine about team orders, because he may just get them, with him #2. 

I still think that Toyota is going to surprise a lot of people. They have no F-1 experience, but they do have a lot of other racing type experience, and while that does not necessarily translate to F-1 success it does give them a some insight into what is required to win. 
It will be entertaining to look at these comments in October - Jeff S - USA (Reference Heretic 4-02 - A three team struggle ?)

The Heretic replies:

Hi Jeff,

Well, looking at the glimpses of potential that we saw of the cars in Melbourne you are right.

The Ferrari was slow (in relative terms) is a straight line. They seem to carry more wing than the other teams and this could possibly be because the car is a hybrid of new and old. Badoer has just broken a lap record with the new car so I do not think it will be long before we see it used in anger.

The Heretic

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